WBOY.com: Clarksburg, Morgantown: News, Sports, Weather10/20/11 Winter Forecast

10/20/11 Winter Forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its annual winter forecast outlook.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its annual winter forecast outlook for the months of December 2011 through the end of February 2012.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature cycle is in a cooler than normal phase which is known as La Nina. The previous winter of 2010 through 2011 was also a La Nina year. 

NOAA experts held a media conference call Thursday morning, and they said that

La Nina is not as strong but should have similar effects as last winter.

The seasonal forecast does not forecast expected amounts of snow, but rather the percent chance that precipitation will be above or below normal as well as the chance temperatures will be above or below normal.

Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky are in an area with a 33 to 40 percent higher chance of precipitation according to NOAAs outlook. In terms of temperatures, the area is in what is known as an "equal chance" of temperatures running higher or lower.

NOAA experts said that is because there simply is not a strong signal that allows enough confidence to move the temperature outlook one way or the other.

While many will assume that a higher chance of precipitation means more snow, Stormtracker chief meteorologist Spencer Adkins said that's not always the case.

"The outlook only addresses precipitation, not necessarily snow. We could easily see that precipitation in the form of rain or even ice, although we really hope we don't see much ice," said Adkins.

Other major climate influencing patterns also must be monitored such as the Arctic Oscillation and Atlantic Oscillation. One NOAA expert described these as "see-saws of pressure" that allow cold air to move into the United States. However the ability to forecast those cycles only extends to a few days and not to a period of months, making forecasting more difficult for snow.

This is the second year of La Nina influence on climate, but NOAA experts said the odds of a third La Nina winter next year would only run in the 10 to 15 percent range.

Other major La Nina effects will include a worsening of the drought in areas such as Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Drier conditions are expected to spread to the east into sections of Louisiana and perhaps even the Florida Panhandle where drought could develop. The Northwest is expected to see colder weather with more precipitation much like last year and that could once again spread into the northern tier of states where flooding was prevalent in 2011.