CLARKSBURG, W.Va. – After some calm weather as of late, a chance of showers and strong storms is upon us here in the Mountain State.
We’re looking at a Level 2 out of 5 risk for strong thunderstorms over the next 36 hours.
Threats for several rounds of showers and severe thunderstorms in the morning, afternoon, evening, and again Wednesday morning include heavy rain and flooding, damaging wind gusts, hail, and even an isolated tornado.
Luckily, the tornado risk is the lowest across the region, but a little bit of sunshine and heat can spur a tornado across the hills of West Virginia.
A moderate risk of strong and damaging wind gusts is possible here in the northern half of the Mountain State.
There is a 15 percent chance for 57 miles per hour wind gusts, which is above the severe threshold. Wind gusts at this speed could cause property and structural damage as well as down tree limbs. This could also cause downed power lines which would lead to isolated power outages.
Small and large hail is also possible throughout the region.
There is a 15 percent chance for hail that is one inch in diameter or greater; that is equivalent to the size of a quarter or bigger. This could cause property and structural damage as well as down tree limbs.
Severe weather is likely because of two low pressure systems – one to our south and one to our northwest – bringing the ingredients of heat and moisture into north-central West Virginia.
The moisture will be coming from the stalled front in the Carolinas and Deep South; this will keep showers and storms present through the midweek. The energy will be moving in for storms late Tuesday into early Wednesday .
The first round of showers and storms will begin when some of us wake Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and downpours will move in with chances of flooding, thunder and lightning, small hail, and damaging wind gusts.
This will continue into the lunch hour and early afternoon.
Another round of isolated showers and storms will move in for the late afternoon and evening.
The strength and severity of these thunderstorms depend on the sunshine and warmth across the region Tuesday afternoon. The more sunshine and heat in the dry slot of the storm, the more likely we are to see severe weather late Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The energy of the system will last a little longer for round three to move in.
A squall line of heavy rain and thunderstorms is possible before dawn early Wednesday morning with gusty winds and hail likely accompanying it.
This will fade throughout our Wednesday with more showers possible into Thursday before a break in the action for much of the region Friday and Saturday.